{"id":6484,"date":"2026-05-05T10:19:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T10:19:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/analytical-report-on-gains-and-losses-in-the-iran-war-so-far\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T12:31:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:31:33","slug":"analytical-report-on-gains-and-losses-in-the-iran-war-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/analytical-report-on-gains-and-losses-in-the-iran-war-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"Analytical Report on Gains and Losses in the Iran War So Far"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Analytical Report on Gains and Losses in the Iran War So Far<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

First: Latest Developments in the Middle East and the Failure of Negotiations <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

The Middle East is witnessing continuous escalation since the outbreak of the 2026 war between the United States and Iran. The conflict began with U.S.\u2013Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, followed by a broad Iranian response involving missiles and drones and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the announcement of a temporary truce in April, intermittent clashes have resumed, reflecting the fragility of the security situation. <\/p>\n\n

The military escalation is centered around the Strait of Hormuz, where Washington has imposed a naval blockade, while Iran uses tactics of disrupting navigation and threatening ships. This has led to a sharp decline in global shipping activity, with repeated targeting of oil tankers. <\/p>\n\n

The failure of negotiations is attributed to several key reasons: <\/p>\n\n

    \n
  • 1- Fundamental disagreement over Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 2- Washington\u2019s insistence on strict guarantees preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 3- Iran\u2019s demand for sanctions relief first before any commitments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • 4- Lack of trust due to previous military strikes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

    Second: Factors Influencing the War <\/h2>\n\n

    1. U.S. Demands and Obstacles<\/h3>\n\n

    The main U.S. demands include:<\/p>\n\n

      \n
    • A- Ending or placing strict controls on Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • B- Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • C- Reducing Iranian regional influence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      However, these demands face major obstacles: <\/p>\n\n

        \n
      • A- Difficulty in fully verifying Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • B- Iran\u2019s refusal to give up strategic leverage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • C- Lack of international allies willing to join militarily.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

        2. Iranian Demands and Obstacles<\/h3>\n\n

        Iran demands:<\/p>\n\n

          \n
        • A-Full lifting of economic sanctions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • B- Ending the naval blockade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • C- Recognition of its right to uranium enrichment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

          However, these demands face:<\/p>\n\n

            \n
          • A- U.S. refusal to lift sanctions without nuclear concessions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • B- Domestic political pressure in the U.S. limiting concessions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • C- International concerns over Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

            3. Mutual Weaknesses<\/h3>\n\n
              \n
            • United States: relies on loosely coordinated international alliances and faces high military and economic costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Iran: suffers from a weakened economy and severe sanctions but compensates through asymmetric warfare (proxies and maritime disruption).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

              Third: Economic Analysis <\/h2>\n\n

              1. Iran\u2019s Indirect Pressure Tools<\/h3>\n\n

              Iran uses its geographic position to pressure the global economy through:<\/p>\n\n

                \n
              • A- Disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • B- Threatening global supply chains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • C- Targeting regional energy infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                2. Changes in the Global Economy<\/h3>\n\n

                The war has led to:<\/p>\n\n

                  \n
                • A- Rising global energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • B- Disruption of supply chains.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • C- Increased shipping and insurance costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • D- Accelerated search for alternative energy sources.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                  3. Central Bank Policies<\/h3>\n\n

                  As a result of energy-driven inflation:<\/p>\n\n

                    \n
                  • A- Central banks have adopted tighter monetary policies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • B- Interest rates have been raised or kept at elevated levels. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • C- Geopolitical risk is increasingly factored into economic decisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                    Fourth: Future Scenarios <\/h2>\n\n

                    1. Possible Scenarios<\/h3>\n\n
                      \n
                    • Large-scale military escalation (moderate probability): due to failed negotiations and continued attacks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                    • Long-term war of attrition (high probability): continuation of the current situation without resolution, resembling a \u201ccold war\u201d dynamic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                    • Gradual political settlement (low\u2013moderate probability): through a phased agreement separating the nuclear and maritime issues.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                      2. Who Wins and Who Loses?<\/h3>\n\n
                        \n
                      • Militarily:There is no clear winner. The United States has technological superiority, while Iran relies on asymmetric warfare. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Economically:
                        \n
                          \n
                        • Biggest loser: the global economy (rising energy costs).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                        • United States: bears military costs but benefits from increased energy exports.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                        • Iran: suffers economically but gains geopolitical leverage through pressure on shipping routes. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                          Conclusions and Recommendations<\/h2>\n\n

                          Conclusions<\/h3>\n\n
                            \n
                          • 1- The war has entered a state of strategic stalemate without resolution.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                          • 2- The global economy is the most affected party.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                          • 3- The Strait of Hormuz remains the main pressure point in the conflict.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                            Recommendations<\/h3>\n\n
                              \n
                            • 1- Separate negotiation tracks (nuclear and maritime issues) to facilitate dialogue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                            • 2- Strengthen multilateral international mediation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                            • 3- Diversify global energy sources to reduce dependence on the Gulf.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                            • 4- Avoid military escalation that could trigger a severe global energy crisis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

                              Overall, the conflict reflects a fragile deterrence balance, where each side possesses tools to harm the other without being able to achieve decisive victory. This makes a political solution\u2014despite its difficulty\u2014the most realistic long-term option. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                              Analytical Report on Gains and Losses in the Iran War So Far First: Latest Developments in the Middle East and the Failure of Negotiations The Middle East is witnessing continuous escalation since the outbreak of the 2026 war between the United States and Iran. The conflict began with U.S.\u2013Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6482,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[197],"tags":[229,196],"class_list":["post-6484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-news","tag-oil_prices","tag-iranwar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6484"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6485,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6484\/revisions\/6485"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6482"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.drahim.trade\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}